Countries’ current climate plans — including 2030 emissions-reduction pledges (known as NDCs) and legally binding net-zero targets — will only limit warming to 2.4 degrees C by 2100, setting the world up for increasingly severe wildfires, droughts, floods and more. If G20 countries fully enact the additional targets they’ve announced but not yet formally adopted, temperature rise could be limited to 2.1 degrees C.

New research by the WRI finds that if all G20 countries set ambitious 2030 emissions-reduction targets and commit to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century, global temperature rise could be limited to 1.7 degrees C in 2100, keeping the 1.5-degree C goal within reach.